** Define the problem **** ** Build specifications **** Subject: Idea I think I may have the solution to two of our most basic problems: 1) How to get commercial products that can be used to survive the PS. 2) How to evaluate what solutions will work and which won't work. 1) Build a generalized specification for each subject we need that we are having trouble finding good affordable solutions to. For example: housing, storage, water purification, hydroponics, radio communications, push-pull carts, tires, light bulbs, etc. These specs are then disseminated by those wishing to buy, they would request availability and pricing for the items. For example; we use a shelter specification to have housing builders bid on solutions for individuals ready to implement or build. In this way we get the help of the manufacturing industry to look at and build what we want to buy. Win-win for both. The specification would be stated in general terms, in that it wouldn't tell how to build it, would say what it's functions are, what it must withstand, and what it needs to produce. 2) Now, in order to build a good specification, we need to fully understand the problem we are trying to solve. What is the limits of what will happen during the polar shift. What is the most likely description of what we need to protect against. I have noted that we have been thrashing around and accumulating shelter solutions, not knowing what will or won't work. There is common workable technology taught in industry to day that says go back and define and analyze the problem. Until we can come to some agreement on the limits as to what we are designing the solution for, we will continue to thrash. We need to further define the problem or situation we are going into before we can solve it or effectively talk about solutions. Nancy and the Zetas have done a wonderful job of defining what we are up against, now a little more analysis, definition and clarification is needed. I will show by example, how this analysis, description of the problem could develop in another e-mail. ------------------- Subject: PS further defined/analysis I have acclimated a current understanding, or a semi-educated starting point estimation. I respectfully submit this strawman to kick around and get further corrected, and refined then I suspect the solutions on all fronts will become much easier to be arrived at and agreed upon. There is nothing sacred about the following, as more is learned it should be updated. We should all push to polish, and narrow down our working assumptions. If possible, the Zetas should be asked to confirm, or change any or all of the following detailed assumptions. Having the Zetas compare this data to there computer simulation, and knowledge would be invaluable. Strongest shaking to occur just after the polar shift which should take about 1 Hr or less. Shaking to reach a maximum amplitude 1 to 1.5 Hr. after the shift starts. Biggest jolts coming from crust sliding on top of or in collision with crust (subduction, mountain building). The estimated duration of the strongest shaking to last 30 minutes before it drops by a magnitude of one on the Richter scale. Three hours of high magnitude shaking. 12 Hr. duration before shaking settles down to less than magnitude 6. Able to barely crawl around after about 9-10 Hr. Earth in continuous shaking for approximately 12 days. Quakes continue off an on for 10-20 years after. Maximum of 11.5 magnitude (amplitude) earth quakes with exponential decline with time. Depending on the location on the planet: Average maximum expected amplitude of motion vertical (up and down) of the ground to be 100 ft to 200 ft with a maximum of 5 G acceleration. This applies to something fastened to bedrock. Maximum expected amplitude of the motion of the ground in a horizontal (side to side) direction to be 200 ft to 300 ft with a maximum of 9 to 10 G acceleration. Note: "G" is a useful measure of force exerted when something is vibrating. 1 G = 32 ft/sec^2 or acceleration of gravity - practically speaking 1 G produces a force of acceleration or deceleration equal to it's current weight - 2 Gs would produce a force equal to twice it's current weight and so on. With a vertical acceleration of 5 G anything loose on the surface will leave the surface of the bed rock which is vibrating, this includes sand, hard clay soil, domes, and other objects not securely fastened to bed rock. As a worst case say a dome is accelerated up for an amplitude of 200 ft at up to 5 G acceleration. The Bed rock stops and reverses direction. The dome being not tied to bedrock will still keep going up and will reach a maximum of say 250 to 300 ft and began to fall at 1 G. Meanwhile Bedrock has gone down to the bottom of it's amplitude and reversed its direction, and on it's way up it hits the falling dome instantly reversing it's direction, picking it up to then be tossed again into the air again. The result is extreme jolts, and decelerations, being cushioned only by the loose dirt, thus the summary statement by the Zetas that our equipment must be able to withstand a drop of 500 ft. Vertical accelerations of over 1G bedrock vibration will last for an estimated 10 to 15 minutes. During this time objects will be leaving the earth's surface. After this Clay, soil and sand due to liquefaction (acts like a liquid) causes sloshing back and forth in a wave action sometimes engulfing objects floating on the surface. This lasts for about 3 Hr. Winds to build up during and after the time of the actual motion of the earth to an average maximum of 350 miles/Hr. High winds expected for 2 weeks to 6 weeks depending on the temperature shift for the area. The greater the temperature shift of the region would causes winds for a longer period of time. Some areas near long term melting ice will experience strong winds for several years. Any standing structure will need to withstand flying objects of various sizes averaging from half a pound up to occasional as large tree trunk size, with up to 2 weeks duration. The closer to the ground the slower the wind, but also, the potential for the larger blown or rolling objects. Temperature to be in transition for several weeks to 6 months depending on the amount of latitude change for the given location. Due to cloud cover temperature to be warmer at night and cooler in days to stabilize at 12 degree Fahrenheit (7 degree Centigrade) below the current average for the season at any given ending latitude. This would be due to lack of sun light, the cloud cover, and melting poles. Rain, sleet, or snow (depending on location) to be continuous for 1-2 months. Precipitation to continue to be above normal tapering off to near normal for the latitude after about 10-20 years. The average amount of daylight at midday, (one month after PS) to be equivalent to a typical clear 4 watt (115v) night light bulb held about 6 ft away from the surface being view in a completely dark room. The amount of light, on a full to a new moon night, to be equivalent to the 4 watt bulb about 21 (full moon) to 46 ft (new moon) away from the surface being viewed. Two years after PS the light at midday will improve to become 5 ft (midday), and on a full to new moon night, 18 to 39 ft. The trend will improve exponentially, until we have the light we have today in 25-30 years. The difference in the radius of earth at the pole, and at the equator is about 13.1 miles (21.4 KM), due to the centrifugal force of rotation at the equate making it bulge. This is over twice the height of the highest mountain on the planet. If the planet poles shifts position by about 90 degrees then the tectonic plates that the north and south poles are on will need to adjust, once the planet begins to rotate. Pressure from the molten liquid, that these plates float on, will grow at the old poles. This will cause slippage, and adjustment in plates which will cause major earth quakes as the land rises about 13 miles at the old poles, and sinks about 13 miles at the new poles. This I believe to be the cause of the near continuous shaking for approximately 12 days as the planet begins to rotate. Static will make Ham radio communications impossible for 1-2 months for even the best of equipment. This is just a start, what else can be added to this? What needs to be corrected? ----------------- subject: What does a 500 ft drop mean Note: For electronics gear the Zetas have recommended a test dropped from 500 ft high. If we assume terminal velocity is not reached and air viscosity has no slowing effect. If we now assumed there is enough padding to allow for 4" of motion before the item completely squashes the padding and assuming the padding decelerates the object uniformly throughout the 4" of motion, then: v = (2GS)^.5 = (2as)^.5 = velocity of free fall of gravity = velocity at start of deceleration or solving for a becomes. a = GS/s = Deceleration G = gravitational constant 32 ft/sec^2 = 1 G S = 500 ft s = distance of 4" = .3 ft. a = 1Gx500/.3 = 1666 G of force for s = 1 ft. this becomes a = 1Gx500/1 = 500 G of force Note: Free fall - sky divers tell me this is from 120 miles/hr (body horizontal) to over 200 miles/hr (body vertical). Summary: 4" to 1 ft. of padding would provide protection such that each component of the electronic unit would experience no less than 1666 to 500 times it's own weight in trying to tare the unit apart. The overall effect of all component motion is to attempt to squash the unit flat. Comment: I hope there is some safety factor built into the Zetas recommendations because I would hate to design living quarters to withstand this much G force. Not to mention bodies black out and go unconscious at between 5 to 10 G and I suspect bodies will begin to fall apart below 30 G. So if we are going to need to withstand 500 Gs or more I doubt anyone would live through it. There is much discrepancy between my expected 10 G max as described in a previous post and this number. I suspect sooner or later this will be resolved. There is the possibility of getting high G forces with low amplitude vibration. This is expected and should be easily shielded with the foam used. The key question here is: What is the G forces for the most destructive amplitudes? The answer to this could then be potentially used to design housing and electronic shock isolation. maybe I don't know enough to ask the right question. Non-linear Radom vibrations is a complex subject that I wouldn't even presume to understand. the above is just a simple physics look to try and get a feeling for what's going on. If the calculations are off by a factor of two or more due to free-fall and the friction of air, then we still have a lot of G force. Where is my error. ------------------- Human aspect: The number of gangs to become rapidly less and less with time especially after first 6 months. roving gangs will be small in size at first, the few that are left, becoming bigger, and more deadly as time goes on. Depending on the area gangs to be fully handled 6 months to 3 years after ps. Survival turning point for most will be about 5 years after PS. ------------------- > After 8 on the Richter scale, THE SCALE DOES BECOME MEANINGLESS. > you extend the shaking to 2 minutes, 5minutes, 15 minutes: any > building > structure or even large plant(like a tree) will start to come apart at ..... > So which comes first? The shaking or the tornado winds? This is really a request for more exact knowledge of what to expect. Then we can build a set of building specification that can be used to get bids from various builders. Eric needs this now so he can get bids from various builders and get started building. Note: Just the distribution of this specification on the web amongst builders could generate interest in Zetatalk. The building specification could include what degree of maximum shaking g force for horizontal and g force for vertical the structure must withstand and for how long. Along with the maximum wind magnitude. Along with the likely maximum sized objects needing to be deflected from the outside, from the blowing wind. Expected outside seasonal temperature range after PS. -------------------- ent: 15 Feb 98 to usgelocial survay I am doing a building design research project and I found the following information: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/FactSheets/BetterDesign/ Recordings from the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake suggested that this limit was too low. Data from more recent earthquakes conclusively demonstrate that shaking within 10 to 15 miles of a magnitude 7 shock commonly exceeds 1/2 g and may top 1 g. What I am looking for is the design limits for a structure to be able to withstand a magnitude 9 surface earthquake within 10 to 15 miles of the epicenter. What would be the maximum horizontal and vertical g-forces, duration, maximum amplitudes, and typical vibration base frequencies. I know these things are rough to estimate but one could indicate the result as a plus or minus a given amount. Do you know how or where I might be able to find this kind of information? ------------------- http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/QUAKES/FactSheets/BetterDesign/ Recordings from the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquake suggested that this limit was too low. Data from more recent earthquakes conclusively demonstrate that shaking within 10 to 15 miles of a magnitude 7 shock commonly exceeds 1/2 g and may top 1 g. http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/study/strongmo/boatseek/1906.html#scale Predictive Intensity Map for the 1906 Earthquake This is the intensity distribution we would expect for a repeat of the 1906 earthquake which was a M=8.3 event on the San Andreas fault. These numbers refer to the Modified Mercalli Scale. Discription of the worst effects due to this size earthquake: X. Most masonry and frame structures destroyed. Some well-built wooden structures and bridges destroyed. Serious damage to dams, dikes, embankments. Large landslides. Rails bent slightly. XI. Rails bent greatly. Underground pipelines completely out of service. See: http://www-socal.wr.usgs.gov/jones/ABC_glossary.html Magnitude Magnitude is the most commonly reported measure of an earthquake's size. It began as a completely empirical measure defined by Beno Gutenberg and Charles Richter in the 1930's. They wanted a quantitative way to compare earthquakes, based on instrumental recordings, independent of the location of the observer. They borrowed the idea of a magnitude scale from astronomers, who used it to classify the brightness of stars. They defined it in terms of the amplitude of ground velocity recorded on a particular seismograph, scaled by the distance from the instrument to the earthquake. It has since been shown to be proportional to the energy released in the earthquake but the energy goes up with magnitude faster than the ground velocity, by a factor of 32. Thus, a magnitude 6 earthquake has 32 times more energy than a magnitude 5 and almost 1,000 times more energy than a magnitude 4 earthquake. This does not mean there will be 1,000 times more shaking at your house. Bigger earthquakes last longer and release their energy over a much larger area. "How big was the earthquake? That should be easy. Why do the scientists always seem to have problems coming up with a simple answer to a simple question?" Many Californians have felt some version of this frustration after each earthquake where one seismologist always seems to be contradicting another. In fact, earthquakes are very complex. Measuring their size is something like trying to determine the "size" of an abstract modern sculpture with only one use of a tape measure. Which dimension do you measure? Seismologists have tried different "dimensions" leading to several magnitude scales. These include local (also sometimes called the Richter scale since it was the first one defined by Richter), surface-wave, body-wave, duration and coda. All these scales measure the amplitude of some aspect of ground motion (velocity or acceleration at different distances and in different frequency bands). In recent years, seismologists have developed a new scale, called moment magnitude to describe the size of an earthquake. Unlike other magnitude scales that measure only one part of the ground motion, moment magnitude is based on a physical quantity, called moment, that can be determined either from the geometry of the fault plane or from the total energy recorded on a seismogram. It is equal to the area of the fault times the amount of slip across the fault times the rigidity of the rock. Several recent earthquakes have confirmed that moment determined by geologists measuring the fault in the field matches the moment determined by seismologists from a seismogram. Moment magnitude has many advantages over other magnitude scales. First, because it uses the complete seismogram, it doesn't saturate allowing us to measure the largest earthquakes. Second, because it can be determined either instrumentally or from geology, we can use it to measure the size of old earthquakes and compare them to instrumentally recorded events. Third, estimates tend to be more reliable so differences of 0.2 in moment magnitude do mean something (just don't compare with some other type of magnitude). P-waves Earthquakes produce three general types of waves (see WAVES) to radiate energy. Two are body waves, which means that they travel through the body of the Earth and the other is surface waves, which means that they travel along the surface of the Earth. The two body waves are called P waves (for Primary) and S waves (for Secondary waves). P-waves are compressional waves while S waves are shear waves. Shear waves cannot travel through a fluid so P-waves are the only ones that travel through the Earth's core (see WAVES). P waves travel faster, but S waves are usually 2-3 times larger than the P wave. This leads to the characteristic shape of an earthquake on a seismogram with a small P wave followed by a larger S wave. Because the P wave is traveling faster, the time between the P and S wave increases away from the earthquake. In fact, just like the time between seeing lightning and hearing thunder can be used to estimate the distance to the lightning, the time between the P and S wave can tell you how far away the earthquake is. Local rock type and the depth of the earthquake cause slight variations, but the number of seconds between the P and S wave times 5 is approximately the distance in miles to the earthquake. (Remember that some of that distance may be down.). ------------------- Sent: 4 Jan 98 ZetaTalk wrote: Yes, humans survive moving 122/hr and stopping if the air bag prevents them going into the dash HARD. They are moving as fast as the car (substitute earth plate) and when it stops, if they haven't far to move and are padded, they and the electronics should be OK! Yes, now were talking in the right direction. Some factors to note: The G-force of a car crash is depending on stopping distance. This would be how many feet the car gets squashed, and how much the object that got run into, moves, or gets crunched. The following table would apply. Stopping "s" distance and amount of G-force experienced: 500 ft drop 122 MPH G-force s-Distance Deceleration .5" 12000G 1" 6000G 4" 1666G 6" 1000G 1 ft 500G 2 ft 250G 5 ft 100G 10 ft 50G 100 ft 5G If a car going 122 MPH hits a brick wall, and crunches the front of the car. Lets assume as a worst case the wall doesn't move, and the squash of the car distance summed with the amount of squash of the air bag to be 5 ft, then, the body on an average would feel 100 G-force. Actually I think it would start lower, and build up to more than this. This would be due to, harder to squash the last 1 ft, as compared to the first 1 ft. Air bags work because they distribute the G-force over a greater percentage of the body. If no air bag a small area of the body must take a large G-force, and bones get broken. Note well: The amount of squash of the air bag as compared to the squash of the car is minimal. Air bags to protect a body during a PS would take some thought. Using only one bag would not be recommended. If you knew the direction of the jolt and it was the same each time then you could position your air bag between you and the jolt, and this might work. But, sense the jolt my be vertical, or horizontal you would roll off if one bag were used. Many smaller bags tied together may work if each bag can be made strong enough. The thickness of the bag is yet to be determined. Stunt men jump off building, and land on very large air bags. It seems to me years ago I ran into a study by either the car industry, or the insurance companies that estimated body survival rate of car crashes with the two variables stopping distance and speed. If anyone knows how to get there hands on something like this - please do post it. Right now I am thinking it would be better to let our survival quarters slide around as it needs. Once the horizontal G-force is greater than friction then it will break loose and slide. The only problem with this is you don't want the wind blowing you around, also. Reason - you could end up anywhere, and you might hit something real hard, going say 300 miles/hr. Nancy, since I received no response to my last paragraph on the last post, I am going to, for now, assume the 500 ft jolt criteria apples to everything until I hear differently. This would be independent of whether the object is loose to be dashed around, or fastened to bed rock. I am also going to assume 500 ft jolt is the correct number to design our survival quarters to. I did find the following information: http://www.public.asu.edu/~lifegrd/hp/stat.html As vehicle speed increases from 0 to 40 mph, the rate of injury in an accident increases by 50%--and doubles again from 40 to 60 mph. Safety belts, when worn, reduce the number of deaths by 45%, and serious injury by 50%. ------------------- subject: re: 500ft drop sent: 31 Dec 97 Lets review now. The next two quotes are what we are attempting to understand, yes? from "ZetaTalk: Safety Measures" see: http://www.zetatalk3.com/poleshft/p48.htm (Begin ZetaTalk[TM]) Wrap everything as though it were going to be dropped from a height of 500 feet. Test this, and see if your device survives. (End ZetaTalk[TM]) (Begin ZetaTalk[TM]) Tue, 9 Dec 1997 23:06:25 EST The worst case situation should prepare for an impact after being dashed equivalent to a drop of 500 feet. This presumes no protections around the object or person to prevent impact injury. (End ZetaTalk[TM]) Nancy wrote: << Earlier the Zetas said that the 500 foot thing was a totally unprotected dashing of a device. No walls, no restraints. It's on a picnic table in the middle of a field. The jolt comes. It flies. Now, if you limit the fling with a wall, or a padded wall - not 500 feet. If you limit the fling with a padding around it, not 500 foot unprotected dash.>> If on a picnic table, assuming the picnic table is fastened to the earth and a jolt is big enough for an object to fly off occurs. What this means is the inertia of the object was holding it in place and the picnic table experienced the greater G-force as compared to the object. Now if the object falls 500 ft and hits the ground then we have satisfied the Zeta criteria. But, lets assume it doesn't. It rolls or slides until it hit something that stops it. Now, for the Zeta 500 ft drop equivalent force to take effect the relative motion between the moving object and what stops it must be going 122 miles/hr. Now, as worst case imagine the bouncing back and forth between two walls fastened securely to the earth in such an optimum frequency that the opposing wall is moving fast toward the object as the object is fast approaching the wall. This would be as viewed from a theoretical remote unmoving view point. The bottom line is to satisfy the Zata's 500 ft drop criteria the relative motion of the object to the wall must be going 122 miles/hr. A 500 ft drop will impart a given amount of energy of motion in an object that when it is stopped must be dissipated. The high school formulas of Physics as given in the first report give the resulting G-force in relation to stopping distance. If our electronics must survive this then the, housing and our bodies must survive the same jolt. Do you know of any human bodies that will survive traveling 122 miles/hr and hitting an object? The bottom line: You have me confused by saying essentially it not going to be as bad as what I am saying. Yet I think I am saying what is consistent to what the Zetas are saying which is something else, much stronger. I believe we can build to survive this but before we start I just want to be absolutely clear that 500 ft drop is the correct criteria. Next we need to know whether this applies to both free to move objects and fixed to the earth objects or only one and not the other. If it applies to free to move objects only then we need to know what the criteria would be when fix to bead rock so as to move with the earth's plate. This is so a housing specification can be built. We could also ask whether it's better to build a structure that is able to slide around or fasten to bead rock or something else. ------------------- Subject: body protection If we can assume that we must prepare for the equivalent of a 500 ft drop is valid. Then, if two bodies are lying holding onto each other arms warped around each lying on 6" of padding, what can we expect? If one laid an arm on this padding and placed somewhere along the arm (any place) a 2 lb wight and then recived a jolt that caused a 1000+ G-force (500 ft drop) so as to compress the arm agenst the padding. What happens? That part of the arm will experence 1 ton of force trying to break it especialy if the fome is stiff and doing it's job of protecton. Now muliply this by a factor of 10-50 to get the wight of part of anothers body laying on that arm or leg. I don't know any arms that would hold up under this 10-50 tons of force. In like manner, two heads in close contact with this much force and shaking can be expected to beat each other up, no matter how one trys to keep them seporated. A baby held on the stomuck of a mother protecting it, will get uncontrolably squshed if the mother roles into a berror (baby between barror and mother). The mother can be injored from the G-force of the baby just by staying on the stommuck. The safest for all concerned is to provide a way so that bodies are keep seporate during the major part of the shaking. Loving, and hugging can go on after the major shaking is over. Keep in mind that under this much foce that arms and legs can fly around uncontorlably and that they should not land on anything that could harm themselfs or others. To me at this time the best solution is beging to look like a hevvly padded strong open rectangular (coffen) shaped contaner with a strong open net gently holding the body in place. This unit would be bolted down perpandular to the predicted motion of shift. For those with frail bones or who want better protection then: Get a body custom cast done while laying on your back out of plaster of paris. Make a postive of your body and then make a heavy fiberglass mold that can be lined on the inside with fome that you can lay in. Make it deap (tapored) so that it comes above the top of the body. Alow, for the thikness of the fome so that it is easy to get the body into and out. The fiberglass resulting mold would be filled in on the bottom to make a flat surface that would then be placed on thick fome all inside a larger rectangular (coffen) shaped open box. Make sure there is fome on all sides and that the fiberglass mold is restraned from flyling up in the air or leaving the bottom. This is so it will not tip on horizontal jolts.